Ariel was presumed dead after
Obernewtyn - surely he died in the Mountains. As the standing rule is in the O-Chron though, unless Elspeth sees the corpse, there's a 99% chance the person is still alive. No one can seem to keep track of him now. He's been rumored working for the Council, and the Herders, and been seen with the Druid. Many people think he is Salamander as well.
Here's where I think he is.
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In
The Keeping Place, the farseeker Wila compiles information about the Herder Faction with help of the other farseekers. On page 190, she starts her report.
She tells Elspeth about the Herder's ranking scheme - the Inner Cadre - about the One, the Three, and the Nine. She gathered the information by reading Nhills novice, when Nhills (a Nine) visited the Land from Herder Isle.
One of the Nine's names is 'Eril'. Eril is said to rarely leave Herder Isle, training novices. How close to the name Ariel is Eril? Say the names together, and they are so the same name - especially when you take into consideration that;
1. This information came in the form of mind-speech - so they only received what they could hear, and
2. Wila knows nothing of Ariel so her mind wouldn't be looking to make a connection.
Elspeth dismisses the Nine and even the Three so quickly, because she is worried about the One. I'm sure this was deliberate, to draw attention away from Eril. I didn't even make the connection until my second or third reading of the novel. But I'm convinced it's him. I have no idea how a misfit could have gained high ranks in the Herder's Cadre, but we know that he has. Eril's job is training novices - can you imagine the sick Herders, trained by that demon boy?
Keeping in mind that Ariel is possibly a Herder, consider these possibilities:
- Selmar may not be dead. She could have been transported to Herder Isle by Ariel. Ariel tells everyone else that the wolves killed her.
- Jes may not be dead. Jes only comes to know of his talents once a mysterious boy with talents shows up at Kinraide orphanhome, who convinces himself and the other misfits they've uncovered to run away. The night of the escape, the mysterious boy comes to Jes, saying the others have all been killed. Rosamunde tells us that she saw Jes kill someone with his mind and then get shot. What if Ariel engineered the entire thing to transport misfits to Herder isle for testing?
We know Ariel has a connection to the Herders. Eril seems to be a very subtle, but obvious clue.